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National Budget: The tool
Millennium Development Goals

Social Expenditure in the Central Administration 1997 to the present time

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Social Expediture of the Budget Bulletin
Year 1 - Nr. 1 - September 2003

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With regards to the analyses
 


• It should be considered that the time horizon taken into account, which is of more than 10 years (2003-2015) presupposes uncertainty with regard to the trajectory of the variables that serve as input for the calculations. Some of the variables are: the exchange rate, whose fluctuation may alter the costs of the gaps; on the other hand, the periods of high inflation (or deflation) may also generate changes in the calculations.

•.The last results of the Census of Population and Housing (2002) obligated to re-estimate the level of population for the years between 1992-2002. The new official data reveal that Paraguay has 240,000 fewer inhabitants than what was officially projected; on the other hand, in 2015, supposing that the growth rate continues the same as that of the last information, we will have 430,000 fewer inhabitants than those initially projected with the data of the 1992 Census.

The previous official projection for 2015 was of 7,773,091 inhabitants. If we take the last census and suppose the same rate of demographic growth for the year 2015, Paraguay will have around 7,342,000 inhabitants. In turn, these new levels generate their difficulties to estimate the population by ages. In fact the size of the gaps, estimated by the official departments have to be adjusted to the new data. The Project has taken precautions to make the estimation. The official data of inhabitants per age, however, are not yet available.

• The estimations with regard to Initial and Basic School Education pose difficulties that are related to the differences in the official projections of population and that are earlier than the Census of 2002. After evaluating different sources and studies regarding the educational coverage, it was chosen to take the data of the Ministry of Education.

• With regard to the estimation of the quantity of people without access to medical care, the last official data are of the year 1998. Currently, the Ministry of Health has more resources, consequently, the coverage may have increased. However, the deterioration of the economic situation may have reduced the coverage by the private sector (it is possible that a compensation may have occurred). Considering the lack of updated information, and with the mentioned hypotheses the project considered the same coverage for the year 2003, in terms of rates, but not in terms of population level.

• The data about poverty in terms of percentage (% of extremely poor people with regard to the total population) pertain to the year 2001. New levels were re-estimated, however, taking into consideration the new population data of the last census.

• When considering the amount that people who live in extreme poverty require to leave such condition, it is not intended to say that that amount is sufficient. It is simply the additional amount required in this population stratum to leave that condition. The costs of focalization normally raise these amounts significantly.
However, the calculation is very illustrative of the low amount in relative terms that the extremely poor people need to have a more dignified life.

• These considerations imply that along the years the Project will be making continuous adjustments to guarantee the best possible approximation to reality and to the costs that are involved in reducing the gaps to accomplish the Objectives of the Millennium.


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Where to contact us: Mcal. López y Saraví / Edif. Naciones Unidas - 1er. piso | Asunción, Paraguay
Teléfonos: (595 21) 611 007/8 - 608 644 / Fax: (595 21) 611 015
Email: info@gastosocial.org.py