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• It should be considered that the
time horizon taken into account, which
is of more than 10 years (2003-2015) presupposes
uncertainty with regard to the trajectory
of the variables that serve as input for
the calculations. Some of the variables
are: the exchange rate, whose fluctuation
may alter the costs of the gaps; on the
other hand, the periods of high inflation
(or deflation) may also generate changes
in the calculations.
•.The
last results of the Census of Population
and Housing (2002) obligated to re-estimate
the level of population for the years
between 1992-2002. The new official data
reveal that Paraguay has 240,000 fewer
inhabitants than what was officially projected;
on the other hand, in 2015, supposing
that the growth rate continues the same
as that of the last information, we will
have 430,000 fewer inhabitants than those
initially projected with the data of the
1992 Census.
The
previous official projection for 2015
was of 7,773,091 inhabitants. If we take
the last census and suppose the same rate
of demographic growth for the year 2015,
Paraguay will have around 7,342,000 inhabitants.
In turn, these new levels generate their
difficulties to estimate the population
by ages. In fact the size of the gaps,
estimated by the official departments
have to be adjusted to the new data. The
Project has taken precautions to make
the estimation. The official data of inhabitants
per age, however, are not yet available.
•
The estimations with regard to Initial
and Basic School Education pose difficulties
that are related to the differences in
the official projections of population
and that are earlier than the Census of
2002. After evaluating different sources
and studies regarding the educational
coverage, it was chosen to take the data
of the Ministry of Education.
•
With regard to the estimation of the quantity
of people without access to medical care,
the last official data are of the year
1998. Currently, the Ministry of Health
has more resources, consequently, the
coverage may have increased. However,
the deterioration of the economic situation
may have reduced the coverage by the private
sector (it is possible that a compensation
may have occurred). Considering the lack
of updated information, and with the mentioned
hypotheses the project considered the
same coverage for the year 2003, in terms
of rates, but not in terms of population
level.
•
The data about poverty in terms of percentage
(% of extremely poor people with regard
to the total population) pertain to the
year 2001. New levels were re-estimated,
however, taking into consideration the
new population data of the last census.
•
When considering the amount that people
who live in extreme poverty require to
leave such condition, it is not intended
to say that that amount is sufficient.
It is simply the additional amount required
in this population stratum to leave that
condition. The costs of focalization normally
raise these amounts significantly.
However, the calculation is very illustrative
of the low amount in relative terms that
the extremely poor people need to have
a more dignified life.
•
These considerations imply that along
the years the Project will be making continuous
adjustments to guarantee the best possible
approximation to reality and to the costs
that are involved in reducing the gaps
to accomplish the Objectives of the Millennium.
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